Today's jobs report from the BLS was interesting. Non-farm payroll employment of 175,000 just beat consensus (167,000) for May and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6% (with a slight uptick MoM). The March and April numbers were revised slightly lower. This appears in line with prior years' May trends. Expect to see a fall in the estimate and the actual over the next three summer months.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) was unchanged while the civilian labor force rose by 420,000 to 155.7 million in May. That means a .04 drop in the LFPR (see my March 13 post on the LFPR effect on the economy).
Check out the charts Bill McBride at Calculated Risk develops that track the employment numbers. Take note of the spread between the employment population ratio and the participation rate!
It seems this economy will plod along for bit longer. The is whether we are in Bill Gross' "new normal" or simply waiting at the gate as Dr. David Kelly at J.P. Morgan Asset Management says time and again? From an investor's perspective, I anticipated sideways economic data and a prolonged recovery due to changes in the labor force, changes corporate labor/capital production ratios and a general sense of caution across the economy - even with the Fed priming the motor. I thought it would be a sluggish economy through Q3 2013 with a pick up in Q4. Let's wait and see.
Predicting the economy, though entertaining, is a fool's errand. Invest in good companies.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) was unchanged while the civilian labor force rose by 420,000 to 155.7 million in May. That means a .04 drop in the LFPR (see my March 13 post on the LFPR effect on the economy).
Check out the charts Bill McBride at Calculated Risk develops that track the employment numbers. Take note of the spread between the employment population ratio and the participation rate!
It seems this economy will plod along for bit longer. The is whether we are in Bill Gross' "new normal" or simply waiting at the gate as Dr. David Kelly at J.P. Morgan Asset Management says time and again? From an investor's perspective, I anticipated sideways economic data and a prolonged recovery due to changes in the labor force, changes corporate labor/capital production ratios and a general sense of caution across the economy - even with the Fed priming the motor. I thought it would be a sluggish economy through Q3 2013 with a pick up in Q4. Let's wait and see.
Predicting the economy, though entertaining, is a fool's errand. Invest in good companies.
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