Wednesday, June 20, 2012

All Fed Up?

Looks like TWIST and not QE.  


So, the Fed is doing something to address what they see as an economy growing "less quickly that it normally would" without exhausting all their tools.  The Fed’s now forecasts an unemployment rate between 8% and 8.2% this year — basically, no improvement from June’s level of 8.2%.  

The Fed indicated that the housing market remains depressed and noted that global financial strains are also weighing on economic growth...not the most novel of observations.



What does this mean for the Fed's balance sheet (something the media generally ignores and focuses on the rhetoric)?  After three months of contraction (from expiration), we should once again see sudden growth from the new TWIST.  This action will keep the balance sheet at the $2.9-$3 trillion level for the next year.  That is a large sheet my any measure.

While the economic news is not good, this provides value investors additional time to hunt for deals (that is me!).  Expect stock market volumes to remain low.  The largest worry for me is still corporate revenues.  How will continued global economic slowing effect my models?  More later.

Quick and dirty analysis on KO.

I have not checked these numbers yet, but I do believe in the KO as a very good value buy.

From Seeking Alpha: 


Coca-Cola Still Looking Good, Merits 'Strong Buy'
June 20, 2012
by: Takeover Analyst
| about: KO, includes: DPS, PEP

"From shareholder unrest about Chairman & CEO Indra Nooyi's performance to market losses against Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP) has been a disappointment. Regrettably, the stock appears to have more room to fall given past performance. In light of this backdrop, I strongly recommend going long Coca-Cola to benefit from the outperformance. Dr. Pepper (DPS) is a speculative "buy" as it is near its 52-week high.
Source: Internal research. Note: PepsiCo's EPS over the past decade.

PepsiCo has been consistent in growing EPS over the years, but the results have not been strong enough. If you take a logarithmic regression of EPS over the past decade, you extrapolate 2016 EPS to be $5.55. Taking a PE multiple of 17x and multiplying by 17x yields a future stock price of $94.38. Discounting backwards by a low WACC of 8% yields a target price of $64.23 -- below the current valuation. The 3.1% dividend yield is also compromised by the uncomfortable financial position. A quick ratio of 0.8 and debt/equity ratio of 1.2 are unsettling.


Investors would be wise to then go with Coca-Cola, which offers a safe 2.7% dividend yield and is rated close around a "buy" on the Street. This top brand merits a premium to the market given its sustainability and solid consistent growth. EPS is expected to grow 8.2% annually over the next five years. That means a future stock price of $109.44 or a combined average return of 11.7% when factoring in dividend yields."


"...There are additional reasons why those seeking stability should back Coca-Cola. Performance, for example, has been predictable but still better-than-expected. Volatility is roughly half of the broader market. Management has executed time and time again while rightfully pursuing penetration in emerging markets. And, unlike PepsiCo, equity exceeds debt. Accordingly, I rate the stock a "strong buy.""



Tuesday, June 19, 2012

WAG's Pain is CVS' Gain

Rarely do we see a binary equity relationship defined as clearly as we have today.  The case could be made that the Boeing/EADS relationship is one such example, but these are companies located in different continents.  Well, today we see as close to a pure example of such a relationship in the US equity market. 

Wallgreen announced the purchase of European pharmacy chain Alliance Boots.  Have Wallgreen's ongoing difficulties with Express Scripts led them to change their strategy and go international?  It sure looks this way.  Does this signal capitulation to CVS Caremark in the U.S. market?  Well, at least Wallgreen got it for a discount since, well...it's Europe (and we all know that market is less than happy).  Right?  It does't look that way.  From Reuters: 

"The synergy numbers are very real," says GAMCO Investors analyst Jeff Jonas, highlighting verticals like drug procurement and Boots' beauty products. Still, Jonas calls the deal "defensive" and says that, as a result, Walgreens paid a full price of roughly 10-to-11 times Alliance Boots' expected earnings.

Additionally, there are questions about the valuation.  From Bloomberg:

The deal will lead to cost and revenue benefits across both companies of $100 million to $150 million in the first year and $1 billion by the end of 2016, according to the statement.
Walgreen, which was advised by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Lazard, forecast the transaction will add 23 cents to 27 cents a share to diluted earnings per share in the first year after completion of the initial investment, excluding one-time costs. Alliance Boots was advised by Centerview Partners.
Some investors are skeptical about the projections for additional per-share earnings next year, said Brian Sozzi, an independent analyst in New York.
“The market doesn’t believe the projections,” Sozzi said in a telephone interview. “There is big-time integration risk here putting together a giant U.S. pharmaceutical business with a giant U.K. pharmaceutical business.”
The U.S. drugstore owner has lined up $3.5 billion of short-term debt financing from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch to help fund the acquisition, according to a statement from KKR. Walgreen plans to replace the bridge facility with permanent financing at a later stage.
In any case, the outcome is that Wallgreen stock goes down and CVS Caremark goes up.  I would attribute much of Wallgreen's troubles to their defensive position which is the result of the long dragged out but seemingly successful merger of CVS Caremark.  For this reason, CVS remains a buy.  Like any announcement, investors must now wait and see.

Monday, June 18, 2012

Monday Morning Reads

Get reading...

The Big Picture - 10 Monday Reads

Seeking Alpha - Wall Street Breakfast

ZeroHedge - Daily US Opening

Positions Added on Wednesday/Thursday

I added the following positions last Wednesday and Thursday:



Ticker
Company
Price
Change%
Volume
Transaction
Date
Cost
Gain%
1
Kinder Morgan Management LLC
70.14
-0.44%
148,113
Buy
6/13/2012
70.3145
-0.25%
2
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
82.2
0.59%
4,122,924
Buy
6/13/2012
80.43
2.20%
3
The Coca-Cola Company
75.87
0.17%
6,076,694
Buy
6/13/2012
74.6799
1.59%
4
CVS Caremark Corporation
45.41
-0.87%
5,134,378
Buy
6/14/2012
45.7416
-0.72%
Total
4 Stocks
-0.18%

0.53%


In subsequent posts this week I will review the investment decisions for these positions...stay tuned.




Tuesday, June 12, 2012

European Credit Leading Equities...

If you believe that credit anticipates and equity confirms then have a look at the latest chart posted on Zero Hedge:




This is chart reflect credit markets ahead of the Greek elections this weekend.  I am considering entering a handful of long positions in the US market this week and this action has caused me to consider pausing.  While some think this is too much detail for a value investor, I'm looking for the widest margin of safety on my entry point.  Given the likely global recession that will set in in the later part of this year I will probably keep more powder dry in the event that the whole market is dragged down but it will not prevent entry.

Bottom line, I am not trying to catch the knife or haggle over a few basis points if my thesis places the equity well under its value.  Volatility is the current market trend and from a fundamental value perspective, my targets look cheap and have good room for growth.  If they lose a couple percent in the next couple weeks or months, ain't no thang.


Uncle Warren Staying Calm

Warren Buffett makes a large purchase of jets for NetJets capitalizing on the down jet market.  Mr. Buffett certainly practices what he preaches.

We should remind ourselves that doing your homework, thinking long-term and remaining calm are core principles to making money in investing.

-JGM



Frontrunning: June 12 (ZeroHedge.com)

Monday, June 11, 2012

Credit Suisse Sees France in the "Bulls Eye" in Two Months

A Bit on Public Sources for Investors


A good investor is imbued with endless curiosity fueled by the need to find those pieces of information that provide an edge in a information saturated environment. Knowing one aspect or another is not enough for one to become a successful investor. Investments are built on layers of information. From basic valuation to global forces shaping the business environment. To hone my sense of markets, economies, consumers and companies I use a wide variety of financial publications and sites to build a full picture of a target equity. Today, I will talk about my favorites. 

Note: This is in addition to brokerage sites for prop research and analysis and Value Line.

With a masters degree in international economics I have an affinity for two global financial rags. The Financial Times and the Economist present globalized views of world culture, markets and politics that are increasingly essential in current times. It is not only true that when the U.S. gets sick other parts of the world get a cold, but it may be that bugs in other parts of the world are responsible for the symptoms in the U.S. I see the FT as daily version of the Economist. My sincere hope is someday to be able to finish an issue of the Economist before the next arrives!

For additional high-level information, I turn to a suite of blogs including Econbrowser, Calculatied Risk, and Realtime Economics. Between these three blogs an investor can gain valuable insights on domestic and international economic issues as well as the politics behind them. The writers on each of these blogs take time care to add substantial depth to their posts. Their writing provides me with a deeper understanding of the economic forces at work in the global economy and every now and then overlaps with an investment thesis of mine.

Moving down to the next level of specificity, Zero Hedge provides an exhaustive look at the areas of finance, economics and politics for the investing public. It provide what traditional financial journalism struggles to cover: rumor and conjecture. While it prides itself on and anarchic, uber-revolutionary form of gorilla financial journalism, it often identifies financial and economic issues before the mainstream media. Zero Hedge is not afraid of complex issues and frequent posts. Its mysterious writers post upwards of 50 time a day. However, it also provides outstanding global market briefings prior to the opening bell in the U.S. One must be wiling look past the dramatic doom and glooms that often appear in Zero Hedge posts to get all that value that it has to offer.

Now that I have the lay of the economic and market land, I turn to the best free stock screener on the web: Finviz. It contains 70 different screens and allows the user to save and update them in real time. Finviz also allows for cross-comparisons of companies and industries in a very concise format. This is perfect when looking for industry leaders or companies that have value characteristics that make them worth investigating. I came across Panera Bread in August of last year with a Finviz screen. That lead, along with thorough analysis has provided more than a 30 percent gain since September. As an additional perk, it also contains a real time news page with links to a wide variety financial news services and blogs.

Recently I discovered StockTwits. This is a Howard Lindzon production that uses a twitter model to deliver rapid information on specific equities. Though I am not a trader, I found this service very helpful for staying on top of the news cycle when looking to buy or sell positions.

I consider all these sources arrows in my information quiver. The combination allow me to remain on top of important issues that shape my investing philosophy and strategy.

I am always on the hunt for new souces to stay ahead of the information curve.  Let me know what you use!

Mahmoons



FTQ Market Overview - June 11, 2012

I think that we saw a combination of a short squeeze and expectations of an announcement of more QE from the Fed (which did not happen) in the rally late last week. However perceived positive China data and the announcement of the Spanish half-rescue have kept the markets in neutral territory.  Volume on the S&P remains low on the buy side and higher on the sell side in recent months: 


This week there is a laundry list of economic indicators being released: 

There are a couple important data points to follow in this heavy reporting week.  We are looking for tells in the inflation situation.  With treasury yields at 1.6% and S&P dividend yields at around 2.2% - below historic levels (see below chart) - we should at least the consider the possibility of deflation.  Further, if the globe slides into recession, will large multinationals be able to continue to pay out dividends at these levels?  It seems likely in the short term as they are sitting on sizable sums of cash a the moment.  Therefore, we may see a slowing in both appreciation and dividend growth in the next four quarters.

On economic activity, the The Disciplined Investor says,"Some of the more important areas that I am looking at are the industrial production, capacity utilization and UMich Sentiment readings. We have seen a bifurcation with the latest UMich and Conference Board reports and this could be the month that both start to align more closely."
Meanwhile, European leaders with haggle over the difference between $125bn and $180bn in bailout money based on modeling that looks more like calculus than simple math (always scary when simple math is abandoned).  Either way, it is Europe that is driving market uncertainty and while good help the economy, bad news may provide buying opportunities for long positions in target equities (KO, BRK, KMR and CVS).